It was really impressive in two notable respects: he accounted for a huge percentage of his team’s production, and his team’s production was easily the best in the league. I spent some time discussing Gary Clark’s 1991 season yesterday. The table below is fully sortable and searchable, but it is initially sorted by career receiving yards. I did this calculation for every receiver in NFL history with at least 5,000 pass attempts. Perform that analysis for every season, and Johnson has an adjusted average of teams throwing 39.5 times per game, as per the table below. In 2012, Johnson had 16.9% of his career receiving total, so 16.9% of his pass-happy grade will be based off of the 740 attempts the Lions had that year. So for Johnson’s career pass-happy grade, 10.4% of it will be based off of an average of 39.5 attempts per game. That year, the Lions threw 632 times, or 39.5 times per game. In 2015, he had 1,214 receiving yards, which was 10.4% of his career receiving yards. He played for the Lions in each season of his career, and Detroit has been very pass-happy throughout his career. So we need to adjust for a player’s best seasons when measuring how pass-happy his teams were. Which receivers played on the most pass-happy teams? It’s a bit tricky to measure that: if a receiver played on run-heavy teams most of his career, but plays a couple of final seasons for teams that throw for 600+ attempts while he is a reserve, that would skew his average. In general, you want to be up and to the right on this chart. So Michael Thomas (38.8%) is at the top of the chart, Mike Evans is second (at -0.42, 36.0%) is the second highest point, etc. The Y-Axis shows the percentage of team’s Adjusted Receiving Yards by each player. Players on the Jets are on the far left players on the Seahawks and Chiefs are on the far right. The X-Axis shows the Relative ANY/A for that player’s passing offense - this is simply a measure of team pass efficiency, and is calculated as ANY/A minus league average ANY/A. I’ve plotted every player with a reception so far in 2019 in the graph below. And while McLaurin and Robinson are playing on awful passing offenses, at least they are dominating the pie: they are saddled with bad quarterbacks, and there probably isn’t much either of them can do. It’s safe to say that all six of these players are having really good years (at least when it comes to picking up receiving yards Diggs has four fumbles, including three lost, that knock him down a few pegs). Of that group, only three - Lockett, Cooper, and Diggs - are playing on really good passing offenses, and Thomas, Kupp, and Chark are the only other ones on passing offenses that are above average. Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, Courtland Sutton, Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, John Brown, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, D.J. There are 12 players who have at least 30% of their team’s Adjusted Receiving Yards this year. Regular readers will recall that this analysis is why I think Gary Clark‘s 1991 season is one of the best of all time.ġ) Calculate the Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt for each offense so far in 2019.Ģ) Calculate Adjusted Catch Yards, defined today as Receiving Yards + 20 * Receiving Touchdowns, for each player on each offense.ģ) Divide each player’s Adjusted Catch Yards by his team’s total Adjusted Catch Yards this shows what percentage of the pie each receiver is gobbling up. A wide receiver on a bad passing offense should have a huge percentage of his team’s production, so he’ll still look good here a wide receiver on a great offense should fare well unless he’s only got a small piece of the pie, in which case he’s probably not having a great season. The theory is simple: if you are a great wide receiver, you should have an outsized portion of that team’s passing offense, unless the supporting cast is so strong that well, the entire passing offense looks great. So from time to time, I look to compare how receivers look in these two metrics, and see who is standing out. And a great wide receiver should make that passing offense effective. In my opinion, there’s no one statistic we can use to grade receivers, so a holistic approach is best.Ī great wide receiver should have a large percentage of his team’s passing pie. Analyzing wide receivers is complicated, so much so that I’ve devoted a tag here at FP to the project.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |